Monday, March 15, 2010

Be very concerned. This is a big deal:

New York Times article today:

Credit Agency Warns U.S. and Others of Risk to Top Rating

...The ratings of the Aaa governments — which also include Britain, France, Spain and the Nordic countries — are currently “stable,” Moody’s Investors Service wrote in the report. But, it added, “their ‘distance-to-downgrade’ has in all cases substantially diminished.”

Growth alone will not resolve an increasingly complicated debt equation,” Moody’s said. “Preserving debt affordability” — the ratio of interest payments to government revenues — “at levels consistent with Aaa ratings will invariably require fiscal adjustments of a magnitude that, in some cases, will test social cohesion....


This is a big deal people. If the US Dollar looses it's status as a reserve currency, there could be economic chaos, out of which a new economic world order would arise. Big scary statement, I know. And those of you that know me personally, know that I'm not prone to hysteria, but rather that I think with a rational, well-ordered mind.

This is the scenario: The first step is increasing our sovereign debt to dangerous levels. We've already done that, thanks to our leadership for the past 25 years, Republican and Democrat alike. The second step is for the credit agencies to downgrade our bonds. That's what this article is portending. The third step is a rush to the exits as people try to get out of the US dollar, and Treasury Bills. That's when the shit begins to hit the fan.

A great change is beginning and at the end, the US will not be the premier economic power that has been for the past 70 years or so. The only question now, is how long is this process going to take, and how orderly or disorderly will it be.

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